View Poll Results: Should Bill Arnett shut up and leave?

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Thread: If you think saving the planet is nonsense then I wish you would move to another one

  1. #281
    Fresh Catch JeepGA's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by notnalc68 View Post
    Exactly

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  2. #282
    Nothing but a Thing
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillArnett View Post
    That was a minor but significant factor in the past but it is no longer. According to their 2018 Q4 financial report they only got $768,000 (thousands, no typo) in ZEV credits that quarter. Gross automotive revenue was $6,073,471,000 (billions, no typo) for that quarter.
    Wow I've missed tons of replies lol

    ZEV credits are something totally different. They are selling tens of millions of GHG credits (that's not same as ZEV). I am sure they are baked into the "automotive revenue bucket). And posting revenue numbers means nothing. You can have $10,000 billion in annual revenue and still have negative profit.

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  3. #283
    Knows a Thing or Two BillArnett's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 13_gecko_rubi View Post
    Wow I've missed tons of replies lol

    ZEV credits are something totally different. They are selling tens of millions of GHG credits (that's not same as ZEV). I am sure they are baked into the "automotive revenue bucket). And posting revenue numbers means nothing. You can have $10,000 billion in annual revenue and still have negative profit.

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    Thanks for pointing that out; I didn't know there were different kinds of credits.

    From the 2018 10K: Total automotive revenues: $18,514,983,000; "ZEV credits sales were $103.4 million and non-ZEV regulatory credits sales were $315.2 million in the year ended December 31, 2018". So all the credits still amounted to only a little more than 2% of revenue. A 2% change in revenue can be a big deal for a mature company in a stable, efficient market. But Tesla is growing very rapidly and the market is changing, too, in ways that are hard to predict. 2% change in revenue one way to the other won't matter. What matters most is the demand for Tesla's cars after the initial euphoria about the Model 3 wears off.

    (BTW, next week Tesla will announce a "small SUV". It won't be a Wrangler competitor but maybe it'll be a step in that direction?)
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  4. #284
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillArnett View Post
    Thanks for pointing that out; I didn't know there were different kinds of credits.

    From the 2018 10K: Total automotive revenues: $18,514,983,000; "ZEV credits sales were $103.4 million and non-ZEV regulatory credits sales were $315.2 million in the year ended December 31, 2018". So all the credits still amounted to only a little more than 2% of revenue. A 2% change in revenue can be a big deal for a mature company in a stable, efficient market. But Tesla is growing very rapidly and the market is changing, too, in ways that are hard to predict. 2% change in revenue one way to the other won't matter. What matters most is the demand for Tesla's cars after the initial euphoria about the Model 3 wears off.

    (BTW, next week Tesla will announce a "small SUV". It won't be a Wrangler competitor but maybe it'll be a step in that direction?)
    Sure thing. And again you missed the revenue part. If they sell a vehicle for revenue but the cost is higher than the revenue (which they are) that's still a big loss. That 2% increase in revenue for credits which have zero cost is the only thing they are actually making money on. That's my point, take away the credit sales and they lose money still to this day. A lot of it. Look at FCAs revenue (or any major auto company) it's ridiculously high but their actual profit isn't that high relative to revenue. 2018 FCA Revenue $130B, net profit $4B. Roughly 3%.

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  5. #285
    Old Timer doubletapdaddy's Avatar
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    With regards to the poll added to this thread...

    Screenshot_20190309-143035_Chrome.jpg

    The outcome is inconsequential. On more than one occasion the proprietor of this forum has asked the OP to leave. That is all that matters. Whether or not the OP's assertions and opinions are valid or legitimate is no longer of interest. If I ask someone to leave my home, I do not expect my guests to vote on it. I expect that person to get the fuck out. Now, my verbage is not indicative as to whether or not I agree or disagree with the OP. My grievance is based on the OP's unwillingness to adhere to the wishes of the proprietor. Rather than participating in a poll, the more appropriate action is highlighted below.

    20190309_145605.jpg

  6. #286
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    If you think saving the planet is nonsense then I wish you would move to another one

    Quote Originally Posted by doubletapdaddy View Post
    With regards to the poll added to this thread...

    Screenshot_20190309-143035_Chrome.jpg

    The outcome is inconsequential. On more than one occasion the proprietor of this forum has asked the OP to leave. That is all that matters. Whether or not the OP's assertions and opinions are valid or legitimate is no longer of interest. If I ask someone to leave my home, I do not expect my guests to vote on it. I expect that person to get the fuck out. Now, my verbage is not indicative as to whether or not I agree or disagree with the OP. My grievance is based on the OP's unwillingness to adhere to the wishes of the proprietor. Rather than participating in a poll, the more appropriate action is highlighted below.

    20190309_145605.jpg


    Well said.




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  7. #287
    Knows a Thing or Two BillArnett's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 13_gecko_rubi View Post
    Sure thing. And again you missed the revenue part. If they sell a vehicle for revenue but the cost is higher than the revenue (which they are) that's still a big loss. That 2% increase in revenue for credits which have zero cost is the only thing they are actually making money on. That's my point, take away the credit sales and they lose money still to this day. A lot of it. Look at FCAs revenue (or any major auto company) it's ridiculously high but their actual profit isn't that high relative to revenue. 2018 FCA Revenue $130B, net profit $4B. Roughly 3%.

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    I just didn’t want to get into a long discussion of TSLA’s financials. I’m not an accountant. But it’s not quite right to say they’re losing money on each car. The “gross margin” on each car is positive about 20%. The reason that doesn’t result in a net profit is that they have spent huge amounts in capital investments to increase their production capacity in addition to the usual overhead costs. For 2019 capital expenditures will be less and production higher so the outlook for actual net profit is pretty good.

    The best measure of a company’s value is it’s “market capitalization”, the price times the number of shares outstanding. For Tesla that’s about $50 billion, FCA’s is about $20 billion even though FCA’s revenue is about 5x larger and profitable while Tesla is still losing money. Why the disparity? Because Wall Street thinks that IN THE FUTURE Tesla’s earnings will improve. A lot. And they’ve bet $50 billion that they’re right. (And this is not all that unusual for a growth company. It’s just unusual to see a growth company in the automotive space.)

    And I still don’t want to talk about their financials. What really matters is how many cars they can sell. Right now they can’t built them fast enough. Start worrying about Tesla’s financials when you see the first Tesla advertisement on TV; that will indicate that the demand has leveled off and Tesla will have to start operating like a mature company. Til then, comparisons with the majors can be misleading.
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  8. #288
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    Quote Originally Posted by BillArnett View Post
    I just didn’t want to get into a long discussion of TSLA’s financials. I’m not an accountant. But it’s not quite right to say they’re losing money on each car. The “gross margin” on each car is positive about 20%. The reason that doesn’t result in a net profit is that they have spent huge amounts in capital investments to increase their production capacity in addition to the usual overhead costs. For 2019 capital expenditures will be less and production higher so the outlook for actual net profit is pretty good.

    The best measure of a company’s value is it’s “market capitalization”, the price times the number of shares outstanding. For Tesla that’s about $50 billion, FCA’s is about $20 billion even though FCA’s revenue is about 5x larger and profitable while Tesla is still losing money. Why the disparity? Because Wall Street thinks that IN THE FUTURE Tesla’s earnings will improve. A lot. And they’ve bet $50 billion that they’re right. (And this is not all that unusual for a growth company. It’s just unusual to see a growth company in the automotive space.)

    And I still don’t want to talk about their financials. What really matters is how many cars they can sell. Right now they can’t built them fast enough. Start worrying about Tesla’s financials when you see the first Tesla advertisement on TV; that will indicate that the demand has leveled off and Tesla will have to start operating like a mature company. Til then, comparisons with the majors can be misleading.
    LMFAO, you definitely aren't an accountant. 20% gross margin... You must live in a state that legalized weed and smoke a lot of it. Even the well established premium vehicle brands don't have 20% gross margin per vehicle. And your assessment of "huge capital they've spent" is comical, every auto company does that, annually.

    Market capitalization has no relation to how a company is doing actually making money. That's all wall street projections on future earnings.

    I actually work in automotive and actually know what those EV parts cost, they aren't making much on the premium ones like the S and are losing on the 3. But keep leaving in your fairy tale world.



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  9. #289
    Knows a Thing or Two BillArnett's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 13_gecko_rubi View Post
    LMFAO, you definitely aren't an accountant. 20% gross margin... You must live in a state that legalized weed and smoke a lot of it. Even the well established premium vehicle brands don't have 20% gross margin per vehicle. And your assessment of "huge capital they've spent" is comical, every auto company does that, annually.

    Market capitalization has no relation to how a company is doing actually making money. That's all wall street projections on future earnings.

    I actually work in automotive and actually know what those EV parts cost, they aren't making much on the premium ones like the S and are losing on the 3. But keep leaving in your fairy tale world.



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    I read it on the internet so it must be true that gross margins for the automotive industry average about 11%.

    From their last quarterly report: “Model 3 GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin > 20% in Q3”

    778B29BC-A983-4B46-AC0D-7AB35002817E.jpg

    Am I reading this wrongly? I could believe that Tesla’s manufacturing is somewhat more efficient than the others but by that much?

    I don’t doubt your automotive expertise. But maybe the parts you see aren’t the same as Tesla’s? They make their own batteries and motors. Maybe they’re less expensive than what’s available to FCA?

    Or maybe there’s some funny accounting going on? But it would equally hard to believe they could get away with that for long given the scrutiny of Wall Street and the SEC.
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  10. #290
    Knows a Thing or Two ddays v2's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 13_gecko_rubi View Post
    You must live in a state that legalized weed and smoke a lot of it.
    You mean like the CEO?

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